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I don't always believe what I read so I checked out the source of your post.Deaths from all causes this year to date 362,259Average over the past 5 years (same period) 309,081Therefore you have a 17.20% more chance of dying this year than the average of the past 5 years. It would be interesting to understand how you have calculated that the office of national statistics give you a different take on what is presented. Maybe I am looking at it wrong.See here https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales